基于MRCGE-GTAP的温室气体减排分析(英文版) |
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2020-08-02 00:00:00 |
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基于MRCGE-GTAP的温室气体减排分析(英文版) 目录
Contents Preface 1. Origin of Greenhouse Gas Issue 1 2. Literature Review 5 2.1 What is CGE Model? 5 2.2 CGE Analysis on Carbon Tax Effect Worldwide 7 2.3 CGE Analysis on Carbon Tax Effect in China 9 2.4 Current Multi-Regional CGE Models 11 2.4.1 MMRF-Green Model 11 2.4.2 GTAP-E Model 17 3. Responses to Current Climate Change 23 3.1 International Responses 23 3.2 Nation and Regional Political Responses 28 3.3 Responses from Multinational Cooperations 30 3.4 China’s Responses 33 4. Will China’s Energy Resource Tax Policy Work? 41 4.1 Model Structure 41 4.2 Data and Scenario 48 4.2.1 Regional Division 48 4.2.2 Industry Classification 50 4.2.3 Scenarios 51 4.3 Analysis Results 52 4.3.1 National Level Effect 52 4.3.2 Regional Level Effect 56 4.3.3 Industry Indicator 60 4.4 A Dynamic Extension 62 4.4.1 Model Extension 62 4.4.2 Data Resource and Scenario Setup 63 4.4.3 Results 64 4.5 Conclusion 69 5. What Will Happen When the World Works Together? 71 5.1 Model Structure 71 5.2 Data and Scenario 81 5.2.1 Regional Division 81 5.2.2 Industry Classification 82 5.2.3 Scenarios 84 5.3 Analgsis Results 86 5.3.1 Changes in EV and CO2 Emission Reductions in China 86 5.3.2 China’s Industry Changes 88 5.3.3 Change of Household EV and CO2 Reduction of World Regions 88 5.3.4 Industrial Output in World Regions 91 5.4 Conclusion 100 6. Concluding Remarks 103 6.1 Simulation Model Construction 103 6.2 Analysis for China 104 6.3 Analysis for the World 106 6.4 Conclusion 106 Reference 107 Appendix 111 Model 1: One National, Multi-Region, Static Model 112 Model 2: Multi-National, Multi-Region, Static Model 130 Model 3: One National, Multi-Region, Dynamic Model 196 Acknowledgment 212 Tables and Charts Fig.2.1 Household Demand in MMRF-Green 12 Fig.2.2 Production Structure in MMRF-Green besides Electricity Sector 13 Fig.2.3 Production Structure in MMRF-Green Electricity Sector 14 Fig.2.4 Creation of Capital Goods in MMRF-Green 15 Fig.2.5 GTAP-E Production Structure 19 Fig.2.6 GTAP-E Capital-Energy Composite Structure 19 Fig.2.7 GTAP-E Government Purchases 20 Fig.2.8 GTAP-E Household Private Purchases 21 Fig.4.1 Production Structure 42 Fig.4.2 Household Activities 43 Fig.4.3 Government Activities 44 Fig.4.4 Export Structure 45 Fig.4.5 Import Structure 46 Fig.4.6 CO2 Reduction and Energy Intensity Rate of Change 54 Fig.4.7 National MAC under Different Scenarios 55 Fig.4.8 Regional GDP Rate of Change 57 Fig.4.9 Regional Household Utility Change 57 Fig.4.10 Per Capita Household Utility Change 58 Fig.4.11 Regional Petroleum and Natural Gas Mining Industry Output Reduction 59 Fig.4.12 Regional Coal Mining Industry Output Reduction 60 Fig.4.13 Industry Output Rate of Change 61 Fig.4.14 Regional Investment Rate of Change 66 Fig.4.15 Regional Household Consumption Rate of Change 66 Fig.4.16 Regional GRP Rate of Change 67 Fig.4.17 National GDP Rate of Change 67 Fig.4.18 Regional Coal Mining Output Rate of Change 68 Fig.4.19 Regional Oil and Gas Mining Output Rate of Change 69 Fig.5.1 Production Structure 72 Fig.5.2 Household Activities 72 Fig.5.3 Government Activities 73 Fig.5.4 Export Structure 73 Fig.5.5 Import Structure 73 Fig.5.6 Production Structure for World Region 74 Fig.5.7 Private Sector Activities for World Region 76 Fig.5.8 Government Activities for World Region 77 Fig.5.9 Export Structure for World Region 78 Fig.5.10 Import Structure for World Region 79 Fig.5.11 China’s Regional EV Change 86 Fig.5.12 China Regional CO2 Emission Reduction Rate of Change 87 Fig.5.13 China’s Industry Output Rate of Change 89 Fig.5.14 World Region EV Change 90 Fig.5.15 World CO2 Emission Reduction Rate under Different Scenarios 91 Fig.5.16 Industry Output Rate of Change of “OCN” Area 92 Fig.5.17 Industry Output Rate of Change of “JPN” Area 93 Fig.5.18 Industry Output Rate of Change of “GCA” Area 94 Fig.5.19 Industry Output Rate of Change of “IND” Area 95 Fig.5.20 Industry Output Rate of Change of “ROA” Area 96 Fig.5.21 Industry Output Rate of Change of “RUS” Area 97 Fig.5.22 Industry Output Rate of Change of “USA” Area 98 Fig.5.23 Industry Output Rate of Change of “EU27” Area 99 Fig.5.24 Industry Output Rate of Change of “ROW” Area 100 Table 3.1 Details about Each COP Conference 23 Table 4.1 Regional Division Code 48 Table 4.2 Reclassified Commodity Sectors 50 Table 4.3 Scenario Setup 52 Table 4.4 National Level Indexes 53 Table 4.5 Regional Industry Output Rate of Change in the Year 2012 65 Table 5.1 World’s Regional Division 82 Table 5.2 Reclassified Commodity Sectors 83 Table 5.3 Reduction Target for Developed Countries 85 Table 5.4 Scenario Setup 85 Picture 4.1 Region Code for 8 Division Regions in China 48 P
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